The Number

Annual Forecast Job Growth in Ventura County In Ventura County, job growth has shifted from slow to really slow. That’s the conclusion of a report last month from the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University. The Thousand Oaks school predicts that jobs in the county will grow 1.1 percent during the first quarter and, with some fluctuation, hover at that rate for the year. The report links job growth to population growth, which is constrained by a lack of housing in the county. Also, the job market has suffered from contraction in the agriculture; from January to October of last year, employment shrank 5.1 percent in the sector. “Ventura County’s job growth rate appears to have slowed from rates that were already slow for a postrecession period,” Bill Watkins, the center’s director, wrote in the report. “Population growth is slowing, migration is near zero or negative, housing costs are high, and few new housing units are being constructed.” The average single-family house costs $620,150, and only 25 percent of the county’s households can afford such a home. The high cost of housing makes it difficult for companies to bring in employees and grow the job base. As for new housing, the report estimated that less than 1,000 units were approved last year, compared with 2,500 to 3,500 housing units approved in “ordinary” years such as the 2001-2004 period. After taking into account the drought and the macroeconomy, Watkins put responsibility for the slow growth on local officials. “The most salient reason is that Ventura County’s political class does not want to see job growth,” he said in the report. “We see this every time a proposal is made for a significant housing project. … It is now the case that no significant change in Ventura County is noncontroversial. This is not a political environment conducive to rapid employment growth.” – Joel Russell