Stagnant Economy Ahead for Ventura County

Ventura County’s economy continues to flatline with little signs of improvement, according to economist Matthew Fienup. That was the upshot as the executive director of California Lutheran University’s Center for Economic Research and Forecasting presented his data at the school’s 2018 Ventura County Economic Forecast Conference, which took place this year at the Serra Center in Camarillo. In an event re-scheduled from Nov. 8 following the Borderline bar massacre and fires in Thousand Oaks, Cal Lutheran’s Fienup presented CERF’s annual in-depth assessment of the region’s economic performance and future.  Former Sacramento newspaper columnist Dan Walters, who now writes opinion columns for the nonprofit journalistic organization CALmatters, also appeared, discussing the Nov. 6 election results and their implications.  Walters called California’s transition from a purple state to “one of the nation’s bluest states” an “astonishing transformation,” he said, but warned of party in-fighting and factionalism among the majority Democrats, higher taxes and Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom walking back on his June campaign promises — high-dollar measures meant to address health care, affordable housing and other social issues — which Walters said would total an exorbitant $150 billion. “Local resistance to housing is becoming a pariah in Sacramento,” Walters added. But it was Fienup, expert on the economics of land use, urban growth restriction and environmental markets, who delivered the bigger-picture analysis for Ventura County. After an introduction by CERF leader Dan Hamilton, Fienup pointed to a number of factors keeping Ventura County in economic stagnation — lack of development and the flotsam and jetsam of populace outweighed by residents leaving.  “People are voting with their feet,” Fienup said. As of the third quarter, he traced a slowdown in California economy, and while statistics on the national equivalent were strong, he said the numbers were artificial, as in many industries, especially agriculture, were bustling before federal tariffs kicked in by July in what evolved into a trade war with China and other nations. Fienup spoke about the yield curve, a convergence of two-year and five-year investment trends that occurred prior to the last recession. While data shows the convergence happening again, he doesn’t believe it portends a downturn because of the Federal Reserve Bank’s “bloated balance sheet.” “It may be that we walk out of the door and the next recession will have begun, but this (yield curve) is not in any way a predictor of that. The reality is, the economic outlook currently looks strong. It will take an outside shock to push the economy into recession.” Fienup thinks the California economy is “still going to grow at 3 percent” in 2019, however, “it will grow slower.” Tim Gallagher, founding partner of CERF’s 20/20 Network, discussed how, in the face of seven years of drought, Fienup took the lead to get involved in local water issues, including seven months facilitating talks between farmers, laborers and scientists to form a new groundwater market and launch a groundwater monitoring system that is being replicated all over the state. Fienup also founded the Housing Solutions Working Group, uniting labor unions,business owners, farmers and laborers, social justice activists and academic scholars in one room to discuss regional issues. Commons Turns 20 Many a Calabasas resident has described the Commons at Calabasas commercial center as the center of the city, so it was no surprise that the community’s civic and business leaders turned out to celebrate the 20th anniversary with developer Rick Caruso and his Caruso firm employees. At the Nov. 28 luncheon near Polacheck Jewelers at the Calabasas mall, about 150 guests turned up. Among those in attendance were Calabasas’ first mayor Dennis Washburn; and Calabasas City Councilmember James Bozajian. After personally greeting guests and employees at each table — and introductions by Caruso Senior Vice President of Corporate Relations Rick Lemmo, Bozajian and Mayor Fred Gaines — Caruso took to the podium to share anecdotes about the origin of the mall, which became the prototype for Caruso jewels the Grove in Los Angeles (2002), the Americana at Brand in Glendale (2008), and the just-opened Palisades Village in Pacific Palisades. “It holds some of the dearest memories I’ve had in my career,” said Caruso. “There was so much concern (over the Commons) that the community became a city.” The developer recalled how the city-driven project had gone from Ahmanson Group to Washington Mutual to Kilroy before Caruso’s team — then-named Caruso Affiliated — was approahced to figure out the retail component. “We looked at (Kilroy’s plan) and said we need to re-design the entire retail,” said Caruso. As he put the finishing touches on the Commons, he asked Polacheck’s Jewelers’ Steve Polacheck to get Rolex to create the mall’s clock and, at 700 lbs., the Commons clocktower became the world’s largest Rolex watch. “We built the project in 24 weeks (from grading to completion),” said Caruso, despite such obstacles as inclement weather, through which construction continued unobstructed in pouring rain. Staff Reporter Michael Aushenker can be reached at (818) 316-3123 or [email protected].