Economist’s Mid-Year Assessment of Valley Region

It’s the midpoint of 2018, so the Business Journal decided to check in with California Economic Forecast Executive Director Mark Schniepp to see how 2018 is progressing. Not much has changed, according to the Santa Barbara-based economist, as San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys continue to boom while Ventura County and Antelope Valley struggle. On the macro, Schniepp said tourism has hit record levels in Los Angeles and Orange Counties due to California’s expansive economy; record-low unemployment; and rising wages and household wealth. Locally in L.A. County, unemployment has also reached a record low. “I can’t find a lower rate of unemployment as far back as records exist (to 1966),” Schniepp told the Business Journal by email. “Technology has not slowed down. Ditto entertainment. Even the retail sector remains resilient, despite the retail apocalypse occurring throughout the nation.” On the micro, the Valley is one region partaking in the Golden State’s economic goodwill. “The San Fernando Valley economy may be the fastest growing at this time, due to entertainment and gaming industries that are flourishing there,” Schniepp said. “Office space is tight and available warehouse space is virtually non-existent.” Santa Clarita Valley also continues to progress with about 3 percent employment growth. When Schniepp checked last fall, the Antelope Valley economy had also seen a spurt. “Jobs are being created and some new development is occurring,” Schniepp said. “But there has still not been a recovery from the housing fallout during the Great Recession. The Antelope Valley is also still a bedroom community with many commuters into the Valley economy.” Schniepp believes Antelope Valley has been impacted by Kern County, which has suffered through several years of slumping oil prices and a drought. “This has had some spinner effects on Lancaster and Palmdale,” Schniepp said, nevertheless adding, “energy projects in Kern and elsewhere are rebounding.” The picture is not so sunny for Conejo Valley and the rest of Ventura County, which still lag Southern California in economic growth “due entirely to SOAR (the Save Open Space and Agricultural Resources initiative, which requires new developments to obtain voter approval) and the lack of organic growth or new in-migrating growth,” the economist continued. “There is still high vacancy for office space in the Conejo Valley, and a lot less job creation there.” Schniepp will officially present an update on the fine points of the various regions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties Sept. 21 in Westlake Village.