Strategies

Internet stocks soar in price without any ostensible justification. The press is filled daily with stories of newly made, Internet-raised Gen-X multimillionaires. Every day is greeted with the announcement of new Web ventures and new interactive start-ups. The rational person would justifiably ask whether or not some over-hyping is at play. But the truth is, in spite of the noise and hyperbole, the Internet is for real, and the trend data clearly reveal that what we’re seeing is nothing more than the embryo taking shape. Full gestation is yet to occur. What follows is an accumulation of trend information and user data culled from a variety of Internet research companies. However, the singular source for the following information is the incomparable Iconocast a free, weekly online newsletter, and still the best source of marketing information on the Net. (http://www.iconocast.com). None of the data is older than six months. Caveat the data is a reflection of its source. In some cases, the source is business forecasters, in others, Web reporting sites and online diary panels. Inconsistencies do appear from source to source given the volatility of the environment. But the overall trends still hold true. 1) The Internet population is now at 110 million, with 41 percent of Americans having Internet access from the home or office. (Iconocast) 2) There are 4 million sites in cyberspace, with 235,000 added each month. (Iconocast) 3) The Net generates some 1.2 billion page views each day. (Iconocast) 4) There are 200 million e-mailboxes in the U.S. (1.8 mailboxes per U.S. user), 109 million for business use, 90 million for consumer use. (Electronic Mail & Messaging Systems) 5) By 2000, more than 7 trillion e-mails will be sent annually in the U.S. (Iconocast) 6) Nearly 50 percent of the U.S. population (135 million) will communicate via e-mail by 2001. (Forrester Research) 7) The average e-mail user receives 31 e-mails per day, which projects to 618 billion e-mails per year based on 81 million U.S. users. By comparison, the U.S. postal service delivered 186 billion pieces of snail mail in 1998. (CyberPulse) 8) 59 percent of users access the Internet most from home. (Arbitron) 9) Office users spend an average of 14 minutes per day surfing the Internet. (Media Metrix) 10) The top 10 Internet domains visited from home and work are, in order: AOL, Yahoo!, Geocities, MSN, Netscape, Excite, Lycos, Microsoft, BlueMountainArts, Infoseek. (Media Metrix) 11) Of the 100 most frequently searched terms on the Internet, 30 are of a sexual nature. No. 1: “sex.” (Yahoo!) 12) Business-to-business e-commerce is expected to jump to $1.3 trillion in the U.S. by 2003, from its current $109 billion. (Forrester Research) 13) The forecasted top five sectors in business-to-business e-commerce are computing and electronics, motor vehicles, petrochemicals, utilities, paper and office products. (Forrester Research) 14) Business marketers will move as much as 10 percent of their marketing spending to the Web by 2004, which will translate to $8.7 billion in business ad revenue. (Forrester Research) 15) Business-to-consumer online auction sales are predicted to reach $3.2 billion by 2002. (Jupiter Communications) 16) Atlanta-based, Manheim Auctions (owned by Cox Enterprises) generates more than $1 billion in iCommerce distribution. (Forrester Research) 17) Consumer online e-commerce sales are projected to grow from $8 billion in 1998 to $108 billion by 2003. (Forrester Research) 18) Online consumer travel e-commerce will be $30 billion by 2003 vs. $8 billion today. (Forrester Research) 19) Online brokerage firms manage approximately $420 billion in customer assets, but this will double in the next two years with online investor accounts jumping from 7.3 million in 1999 to 14 million by the end of 2000. (Piper Jaffray) 20) 2.5 million households invested online at the beginning of 1999. That number will grow to 21 million by 2003. (Forrester Research) 21) Clothing was last holiday season’s top seller. (America Online) 22) By 2002, 15 million U.S. households will receive their bills online. 23) By the end of 1999, the average online household will be able to receive three to four monthly bills online. (Jupiter Communications) 24) You can get an “online physical” and if the online doctor agrees that you’re lacking, you’ll receive an online prescription for Viagra. And, they’ll fill it for you as well. (http://kwikmed.com/viagra/101220/) 25) Dell now moves $14 million per day in direct computer sales via the Internet. (Iconocast) 26) The online version of the Wall Street Journal currently attracts 256,000 subscribers who pay a $49 annual subscription. That’s $12.5 million in revenue. (Iconocast) 27) Leading online bookseller Amazon.com grew its sales from $15.7 million in 1996 to $610 million in 1998. (Iconocast) 28) 11 percent of Internet users have purchased something online in the last 30 days. (Pew Research) 29) Online shoppers are primarily male heads of households (49 percent), 40 years or older (68 percent), better educated (94 percent some college) and wealthier (46 percent generating $50K+ in annual income). (Ernst & Young) 30) The average surfer sees about 330 banners monthly, but clicks on only 2.5. (Net Ratings) 31) 80 percent of Internet users usually ignore Internet banners. (Wirthlin Worldwide) 32) 54 percent of e-mail users have responded to an e-mail ad, with almost half of those respondents buying a product or service. (CyberPulse) 33) Total 1998 ad expenditures on the Internet were estimated at $2 billion, with the leading categories being retail, automotive, mail order and toys. (IAB) 34) eBay, the leading online auction house, drew 6.1 million visitors in January 1999. (Media Metrix) 35) eBay is the Internet’s “stickiest” site, with consumers spending 3 hours, 8 minutes and 19 seconds on average. The next three: Hotmail (1:19:04), Yahoo! (1:03:07) and Zone (Microsoft’s gaming site, 0:58:03). 36) There are 2,361 Internet radio stations, up 81 percent from a year ago. (BRS Media) 37) Online radio listenership has doubled from 6 percent to 13 percent in the last six months. (Arbitron) 38) Online music sales will increase to $1.6 billion by 2002. That’s 7.5 percent of the overall music market. (Jupiter Communications) 39) The recent Victoria’s Secret Webcast topped all online events with 1.5 million viewers. (BRS Media) Alf Nucifora is an Atlanta-based marketing consultant. He can be contacted via e-mail at [email protected], his Web site www.nucifora.com, or by fax at 770-952-7834.