New Valley Economic Research Center Director Roberts is Ready

The thought of learning the theories of economics and applying them to jobs and industry data is enough to cause panic in some people but not in Bill Roberts. As an undergrad in Minnesota, Roberts learned that he found economics fun and that he had the type of personality that wanted to understand the whys behind economic trends. “Economics gives a perspective that you can put things into some logical order and explain or hope to explain why people are doing what they are doing,” said Roberts, who has been an instructor in California State University, Northridge’s economics and business department since 1973. Starting this semester, Roberts takes on the new role of executive director of the school’s San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center, which gathers and analyzes demographic and economic statistics to present a clear picture of the Valley’s economic status for business and civic leaders. He replaces Dan Blake, the center’s director since 2003 who retired in December. Roberts received his bachelor’s degree from Macalester College in Minnesota and his doctorate from the University of California, San Diego. He served as the associate dean of the CSUN’s business and economic school for 10 years, as graduate programs director for three, and as chairman of the Matadors Community Credit Union for five years. Question: Any thoughts in general on taking on the directorship of the research center and following someone as well known as Dan Blake? Answer: My problem is Dan did such a great job it’s like, what do I do now? Fortunately he is around and he’s going to guide me to show this is what we do, this is where you get this information. I’ve started to look into what we have and there is a ton of data. It’s a matter of what you can say about it, what is useful, what’s really not useful. With his guidance we’ll figure that out. Q: What do you see as the role of the research center? A: I see the center as the source for economic data and economic analysis for the San Fernando Valley. What we want is people who want to know what’s going on in the Valley to come to us and ask. It’s our outreach to the community. It gives us a feel for the market and the people we serve. It gives us a better feel for what we are doing and what is going on around us. Q: Prior to becoming director, did you pay much attention to what the research center was doing? A: Only in passing. I’d talk with Dan and he’d say, ‘This is what’s going on.’ The research center does what it does and brings some faculty in on occasion; mostly labor market experts. Dan was on the third floor and we (the economics instructors) were on the fourth floor. I dealt with him a bit. I was associate dean here for 10 years. So I interacted with him and went to the conferences that he went to. In terms of getting down and dirty with the data, this is the first. Q: Do you see that as a large task? A: No. My background is in econometrics. Fortunately we have a good staff. Crunching the data and collecting the data seems straightforward right now. I think I may be surprised in a month or two from now and ask, ‘Now where did that come from?’ Q: In this economy do you think the data the center provides becomes more valuable? A: It is of more interest. If the economy is growing and everything is fine you don’t need to know what the numbers are. You can feel it in the way that you do business. Now (one asks) how far is the slump, is the slump declining, is it accelerating; where is it going, how strong is the impact on the Valley. You can get the national data; CNN publishes that stuff all the time. What hits here and what the impact is on us aren’t as clear. We tend to be a bit isolated. Things seem to hit us, in California in general and the Valley, later than it hits back East. We can provide information on the direction things are going. I am looking for signs now that things are improving. Q: Have you seen any? A: I haven’t gotten deep enough into the data to find that yet. I’d love to be able to say right now we’ve seen this and this is coming up and the recession is over, but no. Q: What is the time lag between when you get the data and the time period that data reflects? A: Right now we are getting some numbers from middle to the end of 2008 but some things lag almost a year. It depends on what the source is. Some of it has to go back to Washington to get blessed before they’ll release it out here. Then you have to sift through it and do the corrections and modifications. Some numbers we get are a year-and-a-half old. So we try to modify that or adjust for that with some data locally. Right now we are in the process of putting together a survey of Valley businesses on what they see is taking place. We’ll have information as to two weeks from now in about a month. That’s the only way to adjust for it. You have to wait for the government to collect the data to distribute it. You’re behind. This way we can reach out and get a feel for what’s taking place. Now it is a sample, it’s a survey but it’s better than not having anything. Q: Are you doing an economic forecast this year? A: No One of the problems is that getting data for the Valley is increasingly difficult. We can get data for L.A. County but what happens on the other side of the hills isn’t always what’s going on here. Without data sources specific for the Valley it’s difficult to do that. We use this survey to get a feel for where we think the Valley is going. But coming out with we expect the unemployment rate in the Valley to go from X to Y we don’t have that detailed data anymore. Q: What is the relationship between the research center and the Valley Economic Alliance? A: It’s collaborative. We use the Alliance to have connections with business so we have people to talk to and what they feel is going on in the Valley. They are connected with us because we collect the data and can tell them things about what is going on in the Valley. The (annual) Economic Summit is done collectively. They do a lot of the logistics and we have input into what’s going on. They help us collect the data, help us make the contacts and we follow up on that. Q: Have budget cuts affected the operations of the research center? A: As far as I can tell, no. The budget for this year was set up last summer. I have heard no discussion on we are going to have less. I don’t expect to get any more. Q: Do private businesses contribute to the center and its mission? A: We have Matt Rinnert, our development director, always out there asking people. Getting sponsorship or support from private business would be wonderful. Part of the contact is to get sponsorships for the Economic Summit. It is an expensive operation to put on.