Web Exclusive: Business Leaders Gather for Economic Forecast

With a diversified employment base and smart financial planning, Westlake Village and Thousand Oaks are in a good position to withstand the current recession causing headaches for other cities. Both cities have adjusted their budgets in anticipation of less money coming in this year from property, retail and hotel occupancy taxes, officials said at a regional economic forecast in Westlake Village on Feb. 6. “We are fortunate to have great cities and great mayors and city councils who kept budgets lean,” said Kirk Lesh, a real estate economist at the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project. “It is going to be a challenging time in the next 12 to 18 months.” More than 100 people attended the forecast presented by the Thousand Oaks-Westlake Village Chamber of Commerce and the Rotary Club of Thousand Oaks at the Westlake Village Inn. Commercial real estate agent Rick Principe has been through three prior recessions and calls this latest one an adjustment cycling first through residential properties, followed by commercial, office and industrial properties. “We don’t see a problem with the market,” said Principe, of Westcord Commercial Real Estate Services. “We see a problem getting to a stabilization period as fast as we can.” In the Conejo Valley, office vacancy rates are at 12 percent, industrial vacancies at 9 percent, and medical office vacancies between 3 percent and 4 percent, Principe said. Retail vacancies at strip malls are at about 9 percent, a good number because it is still in single digits, he added. Julia Ladd, general manager of The Oaks Shopping Center, gave another perspective on the retail market, saying that retailers want to locate in centers that create a shopping experience in which a visit gets extended through amenities such as restaurants, entertainment and outdoor gathering areas. The Oaks places itself in that category with recent additions at the center including Nordstrom and the upscale Muvico Theaters opening later in February At a time when shoppers are more careful where they spend, retailers need to know when to stick with their core business plan and when to adapt to changing market conditions, Ladd said. “It’s a risk all retailers must make right now,” Ladd said. Lesh, who also lecturers at California Lutheran University, provided the forecast with the big picture look at the economy. Expect foreclosures to continue through the year as people who lose their jobs find it difficult if not impossible to refinance mortgages, Lesh said. Lesh also issued a warning that the government risks creating inflation if it continues to print more money for stimulus aid even after the economy begins to rebound.