California could continue to lose jobs next year and its economy continue to decline at rates exceeding those of the rest of the US, said economist Bill Watkins in preparing his report for the Valley Industry and Commerce Association’s Business Forecast Conference set for Oct. 29. “It’s going to be a very challenging economy for businesses, particularly for those in Southern California,” said Watkins, executive director of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University, during an interview with the Business Journal. “California is probably going to recover more slowly than the U.S. because there are fundamental weaknesses that aren’t being addressed.” These weaknesses include what he called a continued budget uncertainty that could result in another state budget crisis this winter, as well as structural problems that have led to high business taxes and contributed to an unfriendly business climate. According to Watkins, these structural problems are not likely to right themselves any time soon. “Today, California’s government stands like a punch-drunk fighter. After absorbing blow after blow, the state can only reel, unable to provide an effective defense, much less an offense. Sacramento is unable to pull itself together and develop a real economic development policy,” he writes in his economic forecast report to be presented at the conference. The VICA Business Forecast Conference, to be held at the Sheraton Universal Hotel, helps business leaders prepare for the economic opportunities in the upcoming year and address the region’s most pressing public policy issues, said Stuart Waldman, President of VICA. This year’s theme was centered on finding optimism and opportunities in uncertain times. “Everyone is wondering when the economy is going to snap back,” Waldman said. “A year ago the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 8,100 and now it’s at 10,000. At this time last year unemployment was 7.6 percent in California and now it’s 12.2 percent. So something is off and businesses are looking to any kind of outlook that can help them plan for the future.” Joining Watkins in a forecast discussion moderated by Don St. Clair, Woodbury University’s Vice President for Enrollment Planning and University Marketing, will be two other experts: William Roberts, Ph.D., Cal State Northridge, and James Paulsen, Ph.D., Wells Capital Management. The economists will address issues at the state and federal levels and also discuss trends in real estate. The event also will feature six panels discussing key issues that will shape California’s economy: water, energy, transportation, entertainment, healthcare reform, and government reform. Dermalogica, Inc. Founder and Owner Jane Wurwand, is scheduled to give the keynote address at the event and share her ideas about how to come out of the recession on top. Based in Carson, Dermalogica produces a skin product line that is among the most widely-used and is available in more than 51 countries. In the past 18 months, Dermalogica has introduced two new product lines to the market and had more than $200 million in sales. According to Watkins’ report, during the third quarter of 2009 the U.S. economy will reach a level of positive growth, while California will not. California residential building activity and commercial building activity are both forecast to decline in the third quarter of this year. The forecast anticipates the number of public sector jobs to be cut in the near future will be another drag on California’s economic growth.
