Six months. That’s the amount of time needed in Palmdale to show if a regional airport in the Antelope Valley can succeed. One year after the start of scheduled flights between Palmdale and San Francisco, the passenger numbers are disappointing. United Express regional jets arriving and departing at the airfield on the edge of the city twice a day are regularly less than half full. Changes are in store that Los Angeles World Airports officials hope start a turnaround that bring in the much coveted business traveler airlines rely on. For one, United will switch from small jets to turboprops and add two daily flights for more choice and flexibility with passenger schedules. Also, in the fall, United becomes the preferred airline for government employees and military personnel coming and going from bases and facilities in the Antelope Valley, an untapped market the airport needs to succeed. “We were sort of constrained in the first year in getting to that high propensity government travel,” said Mark Thorpe, director of air service marketing for LAWA. Palmdale has a spotty history of scheduled commercial air service from the airfield operating from a portion of a larger Air Force base. Before United, Scenic Airways offered flights to North Las Vegas from late 2004 through March 2006. Other carriers previously offered service to Los Angeles International Airport and Phoenix. The difference this time around was a $900,000 Small Community Air Service Development Grant combined with money from the city of Palmdale and Los Angeles County guaranteeing United a revenue stream for the 18 months the airline agreed to operate there. In the bigger picture, the Palmdale service is part of the plan to relieve air traffic at LAX by getting passengers to use outlying airports. While the terminal offers free parking and the time to get through the security checkpoint is considerably shorter than at LAX that has not translated into passengers. In the first five months of the United Express service, filled seats averaged 31 percent per flight. In March a load factor of 37 percent marked the highest monthly total. Responding to passenger feedback, the airline tweaked the schedule to ease making connecting flights in San Francisco. A drop in fares made the Palmdale flights competitive with those at LAX and Bob Hope Airport in Burbank. By adding two daily flights with the use of the 30-seat Embraer turboprop planes and the anticipated General Services Administration contract linking government and military personnel between Palmdale and five other cities United can better capture the core business traveler. The Embraer, however, has a cruising speed of 345 mph compared to the 488 mph cruising speed of a Bombardier regional jet. If no improvement in passenger numbers results the sluggish economy would be to blame as the parties involved made an effort to make it work, Thorpe said. Palmdale and LAWA gave a financial incentive with its revenue guarantee agreement. The county in April began its Flyaway service between the airport and stops in Santa Clarita and the San Fernando Valley. “I don’t know of any small community that has made the same effort we have to make this service work,” Thorpe said. Success in Palmdale comes down to what aviation consultant Jack Keady calls the three Ps product, pricing and promotion. The schedule needs multiple flights to more domestic hubs at a price reasonable enough to attract passengers who might not otherwise mind making the drive to Burbank or LAX, said Keady, whose firm is based in Playa del Rey. Getting the government contract is a mixed blessing in that while ridership increases those passengers pay a discounted fare, Keady said. United has lost money on the service even with the revenue guarantee agreement. The rise in fuel prices has not helped matters any but the switch to smaller, prop-driven planes reduce fuel costs by one-third. Passengers won’t notice much difference between the turboprops and the regional jets. “Some people get a little hung up on whether a prop means a little puddle jumper type of aircraft,” said Robert Gluck, airport manager at Palmdale, “but this is a very nice aircraft.” LAWA has applied for another federal grant to obtain funding to keep air service going after December. The agency’s proposal emphasizes how the federal government benefits from the Palmdale airfield through the ease of travel for its employees.