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Thursday, Mar 28, 2024

Secession Campaign: Too Late or Right Around Corner?

Secession Campaign: Too Late or Right Around Corner? From The Newsroom by Michael Hart There’s no secret here: In hindsight, a lot of things get obvious. That goes for business as much as anything else. If your annual sales aren’t what you wished for, that marketing campaign you said no to back in December looks a lot less speculative now than it did then. When the gut feeling you had on the job applicant you hired turns out to be all wrong, you wonder why you didn’t check that one more reference you thought was a waste of time. Hindsight can be used to explain right decisions too. The enduring success stories we emulate often incorporate the basics: Make X number of sales calls every day and you’ll hit your goals. Make sure every product that goes out the door meets your standards, regardless of the pressure you’re under, and you won’t lose customers. It’s been my experience having covered campaigns for what is getting dangerously close now to a couple of decades that the same can be said of politics. Do exactly what you’re supposed to and most of the time you’ll win. Granted, in business and politics, there are variables you can’t plan accurately for. But the more contingencies you anticipate, the less likely you are to be surprised in the end. As I talk to people these days about the impending secession vote (and, no matter where I go, that seems to be what people want to talk about), they fall into a couple of camps: Those who are pessimistic about the outcome because they have the impression that the fight has already been lost, and those who are a bit more optimistic but are waiting for the show to begin. A few events and issues that have evolved over the last couple of weeks can be interpreted either way, leading, I guess, to how you might be handicapping the election. They involve the campaign for a breakup itself, the way secession advocates have spun the race issue and the eventual announcement of VICA’s position on a breakup. A couple of weeks ago, the Business Journal carried a story essentially asking the question, “When does the campaign for the hearts and minds of Los Angeles begin?” The pessimistic answer is that the train left that station long ago and it’s too late now. The optimistic answer, the one you get from secession pros, is “Just you wait.” To many in the Valley business community, secession is not a new issue; their minds were made up years ago. But a lot of potential voters, on both sides of the Santa Monica Mountains, are just now suddenly asking each other, “What’s this all about?” They are the ones who must be persuaded between now and Nov. 5 of the merits of a breakup. There are, in fact, so many of them that the fate of the election could be in their hands. The answer reporter Jacqueline Fox got to “When does the campaign start?” was “After Sept. 11.” You’re probably reading this sometime early in the week of Sept. 16, so look around. Do you see commercials, billboards, signs in yards, bumper stickers? If you do, perhaps all is well and the plan is right on schedule. If you don’t, we have to again ask when things are going to get started. Regarding race and the myth that the affluent, white Valley is trying to dump the poor, minority-rich Los Angeles: Joel Kotkin’s report, “The Changing Face of the San Fernando Valley,” tells us pretty conclusively that the Valley is more ethnically diverse than the rest of L.A. It tells us (as if those of us who move around the Valley frequently didn’t already know this) that there is as broad a mix of rich, poor and middle-class neighborhoods here as anywhere else in the city. Kotkin’s report, definitive as it is, is at least a year old. I get a fresh copy every time I go to an Economic Alliance event. So when is the rest of Los Angeles going to get their copy? The pessimist would tell you it’s too late. With less than two months to go, if somebody is still walking around East L.A. or South Central talking about the “fat cats” up north, not much is going to change their mind now. The optimist, on the other hand, got a look at County Supervisor Yvonne Brathwaite Burke’s report last week explaining that minorities will lose out on city services no matter which side of the line they live on, and considers Kotkin’s report just the ammunition they need to counter a so far-unchallenged myth. So, somebody use it. Finally, over the last couple of weeks VICA members have been casting their mail-in votes on whether the premier business advocacy group in the Valley will endorse secession. Results should be released at a board meeting early next month. When people eligible to vote in this particular election talk to me, many are cagey about which way they’re leaning. It could be they’re reticent to talk because they’re afraid I’ll mention them here by name, but it’s still hard to understand what all the fuss is about. There shouldn’t be much doubt: The VICA membership will endorse secession. So, our proverbial pessimist asks: Then why did it take so long to reach that conclusion, particularly since that endorsement could have been used months ago as both a tool in the public campaign and for political fundraising? The optimist, I suppose, figures the endorsement will come just as the campaign is peaking, providing all the momentum needed to make it over the hump only the truly cock-eyed optimists among us can’t see. I hope they’re right. Once this is all over win or lose the right approach to take on all these items will seem as clear as day. Hindsight will be 100 percent. Michael Hart is editor of the San Fernando Valley Business Journal. He can be reached at [email protected].

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