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Thursday, Mar 28, 2024

COMFORT—Sad Tidings Changing Retail Plans

Like most mall operators, Glendale Galleria was expecting a holiday season much like any other when officials mapped out their strategy months ago. The shopping center planned the usual advertising, with promotions centering on holiday fashions and gift items, and the traditional seasonal entertainment in the center court areas. Then Sept. 11th happened, and it quickly became clear that holiday, 2001 would be nothing like those Christmas’s past. “We took some time. We did some soul-searching and really thought about where the consumer’s head set is going to be for holiday,” said Annette Bethers, senior marketing director for Glendale Galleria. “And our sense was that they’re very much rethinking what is important in their lives, and they’re coming to the conclusion that home and family is important.” Glendale Galleria completely changed its event schedule for the holiday season gearing all its programs to family activities and adding a charitable component. Fashion Square in Sherman Oaks revamped its plans as well, choosing homespun events like free lessons in knitting and cookie decorating, yoga and finger painting to draw shoppers on each Saturday throughout the season. “The holidays are bad enough (for stress),” said Shana Yao, Fashion Square marketing director. “This holiday, they need something to help them relieve the tension and worry they’ve been experiencing.” With unemployment rates rising and consumer confidence sinking, marketers and retailers had already begun to gird for a difficult holiday selling season as the fourth quarter approached. But the terrorist attacks and the anthrax infections and economic downturn that’s followed suggest that the differences this year won’t be just quantitative. The events of Sept 11 and their aftermath have changed shoppers’ psyches. Rather than flaunt their means, they want to reflect on their blessings. Instead of buying gifts, they want to show appreciation. They prefer indulging their families to basking in luxuries. The malls may still sparkle with tinsel. Santa will ho-ho-ho from his perch, but the glitter and dazzle is decidedly off this holiday season. “It’ll be the saddest holiday season in recorded history,” said Gerald Celente, director of the Trends Research Institute in Rhinebeck, N.Y. and the author of “Trends 2000.” Retail sales, down dramatically after Sept. 11 and showing only a meager 1 percent gain in October, are a harbinger of what is to come. Analysts expect the upcoming season, which begins officially on Nov. 23, to be flat or down from last year. Some categories, like big-ticket items, are likely to fare worse. Discounters may do somewhat better than traditional department or specialty stores, but not by much. And high-end luxury items like jewelry are expected to do worst of all. “My feeling right now is the consumer is behaving a lot like a squirrel stockpiling the acorns for the winter,” said Richard Giss, a partner in the Deloitte & Touche LLP retail services group. “They’re stockpiling their dollars and they are not spending frivolously.” Though it is too soon to tell definitively how holiday, 2001 will turn out, some patterns have begun to emerge. Some retail sales patterns that have already begun to emerge point to shoppers’ interest in simpler, more homespun activities and gifts. Michaels Stores Inc. saw same-store sales spike by 10 percent in September and TK PERCENT in October, an increase officials say is partly due to the season kids returning to school and the start of the fall holiday season typically boost sales for the arts and craft supplies chain but the store also benefited this year from an apparent rush to find activities the family can engage in together. “There’s been a change in spending habits related to discretionary income,’ said Tom Clary, a spokesman for the Irving, Texas based chain. “I don’t know if people want to spend a great deal on purchases, but they still want to spend on family activities. Rather than a movie and dinner, they might be more intersted in doing something at home together such as crafting.” At the Tarzana Michaels, sales in safety pins helped contribute to the store’s 11 percent sales increase in September. Folks would arrange the pins in the shape of a flag, laying one horizontally and hanging others from it and then stringing them with red, white and blue beads to create little flags. Like the flag-waving that took place in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks, the desire to make flag pins may be short lived, but the idea behind it promises to be more long term, said Josh Craig, the manager of the store. “From what I can gather from customers, they want to do stuff at home with their kids and they want to feel comfort in doing that. Instead of going to the movies, they at home with their families.” Such thinking led KB Toys to feature games like Monopoly and Clue prominently in the center of its stores, an area that is usually reserved for stuffed animals, male action toys and other traditional best sellers. The retailer typically sees an increase in family-oriented games as the clock changes and nights get longer, but this year the difference was pronounced. “I’d say we’re looking at a 15 percent increase at this point, and I think it’s going to continue,” said Jim Chandler, sales manager for the chain. Some marketers plan no changes in their seasonal lineup. “In the spirit of trying to get things back to normal, we’re just pursuing our normal course of operations and hopefully cooler heads will prevail,” said Joey Char, marketing director for the Northridge Fashion Center. But even among those marketers who are staying the course, there’s a sense that the holiday season will be different. “Our merchandising isn’t going to be any different, but the attitudes of our sales associates will be in the approach to the customer,” said Denise Williams, owner of Lavenders’ Hallmark in Fashion Square. “Customers are asking, ‘what can I give this type of person?’ as opposed to, ‘if I buy five of these I’ve got everyone covered.’ The gift will be thought out.” With spending taking on a new sobriety, the trends for fourth quarter are expected to revolve around goods and services that fill a longing for simpler, safer times and a desire to cocoon at home with family. Several Valley mall operators are trying to tap into the sentiment. Fashion Square was planning its holiday activities with the idea of combating the stress of the holidays, but after Sept. 11 the idea really seemed to gel, said marketing director Shana Yao. “We’ll have Santa,” said Yao. “We’ll have children decorate cards and we display them as we did last year. But I think because of the events of 9/11 everyone just wants something, a little comfort. And we feel this is a community center and we should provide it.” Glendale Galleria, under the theme “Comfort and Joy, ” is hoping to strike a balance between commerce and charity. Stephen Jacob, a jazz pianist, will perform holiday classics on Nov. 23 from his cd, also titled “Comfort and Joy.” The recording will be available for sale, and profits will go to the United Way’s Sept. 11 fund. The mall’s new holiday decorations, featuring a whimsical Santa’s bake shop, will include the traditional Santa visits. But the mall will also be selling Santa’s cookie plates and cocoa mugs that can be personalized with the child’s photo. Proceeds from those sales will go to the Red Cross earmarked for the children of Afghanistan. And the profits from another holiday tradition, sales of photos of Santa with family pets will be sent to the National Disaster Search Dog Association, which helped in the World Trade Center rescue effort. “Since Sept. 11 we, like I’m sure every mall and retailer out there, have been taking the temperature of the consumer and trying to understand as best we can how they’re feeling,” said Bethers. “I hope it will bode well for sales.” But this season could turn out to be one infused with those things that holidays symbolized before commercialization took over. Trend watcher Celente, whose latest book, “What Zizi Gave Honeyboy,” due out in April, deals with a return to family values, believes that the tide is turning back to the era when families gathered around the dining table. “When you go through a depression, and we believe the probability of depression is greater than the reality of recession, these are times when the best things in life are free,” Celente said. “That’s when family becomes a tighter unit.” This year, he said, “There may even be an outside shot that the true meaning of the Christmas spirit will be celebrated.”

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